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Red114
171843.7
205434.7
261134.3
Blue120
353441.8
7431.9
20131.8
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions124110406080100140160180114120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.70.0
44.244.2
Auto12.0
Teleop22.4
End9.4
red by 1.8
41.80.2
41.742.0
Auto9.2
Teleop19.9
End12.8
Second
34.70.0
35.335.2
Auto10.1
Teleop15.5
End9.1
red by 2.8
74
#7
31.90.2
31.832.0
Auto6.8
Teleop14.7
End10.4
Third
2611
#12
34.30.0
34.934.9
Auto10.0
Teleop13.7
End10.6
red by 2.5
201
#26
31.80.2
31.731.9
Auto7.1
Teleop15.9
End8.7