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Red89
353936.8
552512.9
436246.7
Blue86
22641.1
413021.6
283422.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions102990501502002508986

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.70.7
43.542.8
Auto14.0
Teleop22.6
End10.1
red by 5.6
226
#2
41.10.5
45.945.4
Auto7.3
Teleop21.3
End12.6
Second
3539
#10
36.80.7
39.038.3
Auto10.5
Teleop20.6
End5.7
red by 14.2
2834
#18
22.60.5
24.824.3
Auto10.2
Teleop10.5
End1.9
Third
5525
#16
12.90.7
13.212.5
Auto2.4
Teleop1.6
End8.9
blue by 8.7
21.60.5
22.622.1
Auto6.4
Teleop9.5
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
98%Cargo oddsEarned91%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
92%Hangar oddsEarned86%Hangar oddsMissed