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Red91
439231.9
511450.0
776811.4
Blue81
258629.1
439131.4
482712.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10272501509181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.00.0
49.649.6
Auto14.9
Teleop23.2
End11.9
red by 18.6
31.40.2
31.131.3
Auto7.8
Teleop12.7
End11.0
Second
31.90.0
31.631.5
Auto8.5
Teleop14.3
End9.1
red by 2.8
29.10.2
28.829.0
Auto8.4
Teleop14.5
End6.2
Third
7768
#32
11.40.0
11.011.0
Auto2.9
Teleop2.8
End5.7
blue by 0.8
4827
#27
12.10.2
11.812.0
Auto3.3
Teleop4.6
End4.2