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Red69
657019.8
21713.7
150231.8
Blue9
83147.8
722112.0
36196.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6713020406080100699

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.80.6
27.728.3
Auto9.4
Teleop12.2
End10.2
red by 19.8
7221
#18
12.01.2
6.14.9
Auto3.6
Teleop4.6
End3.8
Second
19.80.6
17.418.0
Auto3.7
Teleop5.6
End10.5
red by 12.0
8314
#35
7.81.2
8.77.6
Auto3.3
Teleop3.4
End1.1
Third
217
#21
13.71.0
11.112.1
Auto3.1
Teleop8.6
End2.0
red by 7.3
3619
#26
6.40.7
4.63.9
Auto1.7
Teleop0.0
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
34%Cargo oddsEarned9%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
75%Hangar oddsEarned28%Hangar oddsMissed