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Red50
462311.8
284722.5
392611.9
Blue18
57208.0
28468.1
75786.0
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions392702060805018

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.51.2
17.919.1
Auto5.8
Teleop8.7
End8.0
red by 14.4
2846
#30
8.11.4
10.18.7
Auto2.2
Teleop2.7
End3.2
Second
3926
#31
11.91.2
6.67.8
Auto3.9
Teleop6.1
End1.9
red by 4.0
5720
#48
8.01.4
8.57.1
Auto3.4
Teleop2.6
End2.0
Third
4623
#45
11.81.2
10.511.7
Auto4.1
Teleop3.9
End3.8
red by 5.8
7578
#44
6.01.4
7.96.5
Auto1.5
Teleop1.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
13%Cargo oddsMissed8%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
37%Hangar oddsMissed27%Hangar oddsMissed