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Red112
363036.8
220245.6
851618.2
Blue114
702841.9
205242.5
308218.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10311150150200112114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.60.1
44.744.8
Auto9.6
Teleop28.2
End7.8
red by 3.0
42.50.2
42.742.9
Auto11.0
Teleop22.7
End8.8
Second
36.80.1
36.036.1
Auto8.2
Teleop19.3
End9.2
blue by 5.1
41.90.2
42.042.3
Auto12.5
Teleop24.2
End5.2
Third
8516
#37
18.20.2
17.017.2
Auto3.5
Teleop6.6
End8.1
red by 0.2
3082
#30
18.10.3
18.218.5
Auto5.4
Teleop7.1
End5.5