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Red70
24087.8
173632.5
806912.6
Blue71
807710.1
615712.4
414336.5
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions47642040801007071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.51.6
29.931.5
Auto9.1
Teleop20.4
End3.1
blue by 4.0
36.50.9
35.736.6
Auto8.8
Teleop16.1
End11.6
Second
8069
#15
12.62.1
11.613.7
Auto4.3
Teleop4.0
End4.3
red by 0.2
6157
#25
12.41.2
12.113.2
Auto4.6
Teleop6.4
End1.3
Third
2408
#34
7.82.3
4.87.0
Auto2.5
Teleop3.5
End1.8
blue by 2.3
8077
#16
10.11.3
9.911.2
Auto3.6
Teleop1.5
End5.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
41%Cargo oddsEarned36%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
17%Hangar oddsMissed57%Hangar oddsEarned