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Red54
572723.7
264216.7
345911.9
Blue58
482818.0
789018.6
68948.7
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57482040801005458

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.70.0
23.623.6
Auto4.9
Teleop15.6
End3.2
red by 5.1
18.60.1
18.818.9
Auto3.7
Teleop11.0
End3.9
Second
16.70.0
16.616.6
Auto4.4
Teleop5.8
End6.5
blue by 1.3
18.00.1
18.218.3
Auto5.6
Teleop7.1
End5.3
Third
3459
#25
11.90.0
11.811.7
Auto3.3
Teleop4.7
End3.8
red by 3.2
6894
#20
8.70.1
8.99.0
Auto3.2
Teleop3.5
End2.0