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Red94
22830.7
346130.2
66319.4
Blue102
107327.1
615327.4
314629.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83836070809010011094102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
228
#11
30.70.3
29.730.0
Auto8.1
Teleop12.0
End10.6
red by 1.5
3146
#29
29.20.3
27.427.6
Auto8.7
Teleop10.2
End10.3
Second
30.20.3
29.229.5
Auto5.8
Teleop12.3
End12.0
red by 2.7
27.40.3
25.625.8
Auto6.1
Teleop11.9
End9.4
Third
663
#33
19.40.3
18.418.7
Auto5.1
Teleop11.0
End3.2
blue by 7.7
1073
#30
27.10.3
25.225.5
Auto8.5
Teleop11.3
End7.3