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Red69
16625.5
46717.1
50918.9
Blue70
107327.1
109914.4
615327.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67664050607080906970

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
166
#17
25.50.5
24.324.7
Auto3.2
Teleop11.5
End10.8
blue by 1.9
27.40.5
16.316.8
Auto6.1
Teleop11.9
End9.4
Second
509
#23
18.90.5
21.121.6
Auto6.5
Teleop2.9
End9.5
blue by 8.1
1073
#30
27.10.5
26.927.4
Auto8.5
Teleop11.3
End7.3
Third
467
#25
17.10.5
16.617.1
Auto5.8
Teleop6.1
End5.2
red by 2.8
1099
#32
14.40.5
19.319.8
Auto5.4
Teleop6.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
70%Cargo oddsEarned77%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
85%Hangar oddsEarned68%Hangar oddsMissed