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Red74
63978.6
447641.2
808916.1
Blue59
356021.5
78119.9
697813.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6345020801007459

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4476
#14
41.20.9
40.141.0
Auto12.0
Teleop21.4
End7.8
red by 19.8
3560
#46
21.51.0
16.117.1
Auto7.9
Teleop9.4
End4.2
Second
8089
#27
16.10.9
9.510.4
Auto4.7
Teleop6.9
End4.6
blue by 3.8
781
#6
19.91.0
13.814.8
Auto7.3
Teleop6.7
End5.9
Third
6397
#60
8.60.9
7.07.9
Auto4.0
Teleop2.6
End2.0
blue by 5.1
6978
#58
13.81.0
14.415.4
Auto3.4
Teleop6.9
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
24%Cargo oddsEarned19%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
34%Hangar oddsMissed36%Hangar oddsEarned