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Red73
86512.0
748033.4
999822.4
Blue75
124135.0
998510.9
495113.7
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6664304050607080907375

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7480
#12
33.40.4
34.134.5
Auto10.0
Teleop20.2
End3.2
blue by 1.6
35.00.7
40.441.2
Auto14.3
Teleop18.5
End2.3
Second
9998
#13
22.40.6
21.722.3
Auto8.7
Teleop9.4
End4.6
red by 8.7
13.70.7
12.913.7
Auto4.9
Teleop5.0
End3.7
Third
865
#20
12.00.4
11.712.0
Auto5.4
Teleop3.5
End3.0
red by 1.1
9985
#22
10.91.2
10.511.6
Auto4.9
Teleop5.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
65%Cargo oddsEarned80%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
25%Hangar oddsMissed15%Hangar oddsEarned