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Red126
491147.3
291059.6
321827.8
Blue117
582736.1
214741.2
255736.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15011850100200126117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.60.3
60.360.0
Auto14.8
Teleop32.8
End11.9
red by 18.4
41.20.0
41.541.5
Auto8.3
Teleop25.1
End7.9
Second
47.30.3
48.147.8
Auto12.1
Teleop25.6
End9.6
red by 10.8
2557
#18
36.60.0
36.936.8
Auto11.6
Teleop17.2
End7.7
Third
3218
#25
27.80.3
28.628.2
Auto6.6
Teleop9.3
End11.9
blue by 8.3
5827
#29
36.10.0
36.436.4
Auto10.7
Teleop20.1
End5.2