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Red68
29610.7
399033.7
561813.3
Blue43
355024.2
398624.8
31176.4
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6060405070806843

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.70.5
30.731.2
Auto10.7
Teleop16.1
End6.9
red by 8.9
24.80.9
23.222.2
Auto5.4
Teleop11.4
End8.0
Second
5618
#11
13.30.8
14.615.4
Auto3.4
Teleop7.4
End2.5
blue by 10.9
24.20.8
20.419.5
Auto7.7
Teleop11.6
End4.9
Third
296
#7
10.70.6
11.211.8
Auto4.5
Teleop4.2
End2.0
red by 4.4
3117
#12
6.41.4
12.110.7
Auto0.6
Teleop3.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
38%Cargo oddsEarned15%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
30%Hangar oddsMissed74%Hangar oddsEarned