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Red56
637726.5
348118.4
458710.6
Blue74
636917.4
45623.5
582916.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59593040507080905674

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6377
#11
26.50.0
26.026.1
Auto8.8
Teleop11.1
End6.5
red by 3.0
456
#6
23.50.4
22.623.0
Auto6.5
Teleop10.8
End6.2
Second
18.40.0
18.018.0
Auto4.8
Teleop8.9
End4.7
red by 1.1
6369
#22
17.40.4
16.516.9
Auto8.4
Teleop1.4
End7.5
Third
4587
#23
10.60.0
10.210.2
Auto5.0
Teleop1.0
End4.7
blue by 5.7
5829
#20
16.40.4
15.415.9
Auto5.9
Teleop4.2
End6.2