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Red51
80518.3
56839.7
491522.7
Blue29
304914.9
29274.2
52959.7
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions303602060805129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.71.2
17.718.9
Auto5.9
Teleop15.0
End1.8
red by 7.8
3049
#15
14.90.3
16.115.8
Auto6.7
Teleop4.9
End3.3
Second
5683
#12
9.71.2
9.210.4
Auto3.6
Teleop6.8
End-0.7
blue by 0.1
5295
#18
9.70.3
12.312.0
Auto3.2
Teleop3.4
End3.1
Third
8051
#14
8.31.2
2.33.5
Auto2.3
Teleop5.8
End0.2
red by 4.1
2927
#22
4.20.5
4.94.4
Auto0.8
Teleop2.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
25%Cargo oddsEarned21%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
2%Hangar oddsMissed12%Hangar oddsMissed