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Red19
635010.7
451215.0
307014.3
Blue107
291046.5
42056.4
408933.6
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2857020408010019107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
15.01.2
9.58.3
Auto1.6
Teleop6.5
End6.9
blue by 31.5
46.55.9
25.631.5
Auto14.8
Teleop23.8
End7.9
Second
3070
#16
14.31.2
10.59.3
Auto5.3
Teleop6.1
End2.9
blue by 19.3
33.65.9
16.922.8
Auto9.7
Teleop17.4
End6.5
Third
6350
#15
10.71.2
9.78.5
Auto2.3
Teleop3.9
End4.5
red by 4.2
4205
#32
6.45.9
7.513.4
Auto2.7
Teleop2.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
21%Cargo oddsMissed34%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
23%Hangar oddsMissed30%Hangar oddsEarned