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Red59
756521.2
756719.6
99894.9
Blue54
999513.7
186018.7
99905.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4339102030506070805954

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.20.4
20.020.4
Auto5.4
Teleop6.2
End9.8
red by 2.5
18.70.4
18.318.7
Auto5.9
Teleop10.6
End2.4
Second
19.60.4
18.418.8
Auto7.6
Teleop10.3
End1.8
red by 5.9
9995
#14
13.70.5
13.213.7
Auto3.5
Teleop8.8
End1.3
Third
9989
#16
4.90.5
3.43.9
Auto2.3
Teleop0.5
End2.0
blue by 0.7
9990
#23
5.70.5
5.25.7
Auto1.8
Teleop1.6
End2.1