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Red71
998718.5
478832.1
99886.9
Blue59
919119.8
998516.7
652415.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35221002003004005006007159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.10.3
30.931.2
Auto6.3
Teleop24.4
End1.3
red by 12.3
19.80.2
19.319.5
Auto4.0
Teleop13.1
End2.7
Second
18.50.3
17.317.6
Auto1.1
Teleop17.9
End-0.5
red by 1.8
9985
#10
16.70.2
16.216.4
Auto1.8
Teleop15.4
End-0.5
Third
9988
#16
6.90.3
5.76.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.2
End-1.0
blue by 8.3
15.30.2
14.815.0
Auto1.2
Teleop14.0
End0.1