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Red116
115338.2
234237.1
287736.4
Blue153
105828.7
12560.4
331458.9
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115159050100200250116153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1153
#26
38.20.0
38.238.2
Auto10.3
Teleop20.7
End7.0
blue by 22.2
125
#33
60.40.0
60.460.4
Auto14.1
Teleop36.3
End8.2
Second
2342
#22
37.10.0
37.137.1
Auto10.0
Teleop21.5
End6.3
blue by 21.8
58.90.0
58.958.9
Auto13.1
Teleop37.3
End7.3
Third
2877
#40
36.40.0
36.436.4
Auto10.3
Teleop21.4
End4.3
red by 7.7
1058
#32
28.70.0
28.728.7
Auto8.0
Teleop14.1
End6.5