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Red99
145217.7
412342.0
29446.3
Blue95
585714.4
802040.6
84642.7
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113105501502009995

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
294
#17
46.30.2
45.945.7
Auto11.6
Teleop28.3
End6.5
red by 3.6
846
#9
42.70.7
43.442.7
Auto12.7
Teleop24.4
End5.6
Second
42.00.2
41.641.3
Auto15.9
Teleop17.9
End8.2
red by 1.4
40.60.7
41.340.6
Auto11.3
Teleop21.5
End7.8
Third
1452
#23
17.70.2
17.317.1
Auto6.1
Teleop7.1
End4.5
red by 3.3
5857
#32
14.40.5
14.914.4
Auto3.5
Teleop4.2
End6.7