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Red166
157232.5
364747.8
325553.0
Blue134
248545.4
528523.0
283940.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14310750200166134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.00.8
51.752.5
Auto13.7
Teleop32.4
End6.8
red by 7.6
2485
#10
45.40.6
44.445.0
Auto13.1
Teleop23.6
End8.7
Second
3647
#13
47.80.8
46.547.3
Auto12.7
Teleop27.9
End7.2
red by 7.4
40.40.6
39.440.0
Auto11.1
Teleop21.8
End7.5
Third
1572
#27
32.50.8
31.232.0
Auto6.2
Teleop18.9
End7.4
red by 9.5
5285
#35
23.00.6
21.522.2
Auto5.7
Teleop13.4
End3.8