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Red161
715763.5
58930.2
441467.6
Blue141
432242.3
312841.6
441551.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13811150100150200161141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4414
#13
67.60.0
68.168.0
Auto13.1
Teleop54.5
End-0.5
red by 15.9
51.70.0
51.751.7
Auto11.4
Teleop37.2
End2.5
Second
63.50.0
64.063.9
Auto10.2
Teleop52.4
End-0.5
red by 21.2
42.30.0
42.242.3
Auto7.8
Teleop33.8
End0.8
Third
589
#28
30.20.0
30.730.7
Auto5.6
Teleop21.9
End3.1
blue by 11.3
3128
#15
41.60.0
41.541.6
Auto6.8
Teleop36.0
End-1.0