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Red200
291071.8
161965.6
546065.9
Blue180
473854.7
35963.4
69652.2
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16014380100120180200220200180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.80.2
71.671.8
Auto11.3
Teleop52.8
End1.6
red by 8.4
359
#15
63.40.3
63.163.4
Auto13.3
Teleop45.9
End1.3
Second
5460
#20
65.90.2
65.765.9
Auto10.9
Teleop52.5
End0.7
red by 11.1
4738
#33
54.70.3
54.454.7
Auto12.4
Teleop41.3
End-0.1
Third
1619
#28
65.60.2
65.265.4
Auto15.4
Teleop45.9
End0.5
red by 13.5
696
#2
52.20.3
51.952.2
Auto9.4
Teleop43.1
End0.2