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Red148
171027.7
328438.7
173047.1
Blue132
642463.9
198652.5
193928.8
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115157050100200250148132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1730
#10
47.10.7
47.247.8
Auto9.0
Teleop29.0
End8.7
blue by 16.9
63.90.2
64.263.9
Auto15.5
Teleop37.4
End9.8
Second
38.70.7
37.738.4
Auto6.9
Teleop24.2
End7.9
blue by 13.8
52.50.2
52.752.5
Auto13.8
Teleop29.4
End8.5
Third
1710
#23
27.70.7
27.728.4
Auto10.2
Teleop11.6
End6.2
blue by 1.2
1939
#39
28.80.2
29.128.8
Auto6.3
Teleop16.1
End6.2