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Red134
193928.8
198652.5
642463.9
Blue106
495923.8
509825.8
256017.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168540100150200250134106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.90.4
64.664.2
Auto15.5
Teleop37.4
End9.8
red by 38.1
25.80.9
24.925.8
Auto10.2
Teleop10.8
End4.8
Second
52.50.4
53.152.7
Auto13.8
Teleop29.4
End8.5
red by 28.6
4959
#20
23.80.9
22.923.8
Auto5.6
Teleop13.3
End5.0
Third
1939
#39
28.80.4
29.529.1
Auto6.3
Teleop16.1
End6.2
red by 11.1
2560
#24
17.70.9
16.817.7
Auto4.3
Teleop8.9
End4.4