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Red131
107121.5
23045.3
808543.3
Blue115
786913.7
17652.8
17746.3
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11312350100150200131115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#5
45.30.4
44.444.8
Auto13.2
Teleop25.4
End6.7
blue by 7.5
176
#1
52.80.0
53.453.4
Auto14.9
Teleop28.6
End9.4
Second
43.30.4
42.442.8
Auto9.3
Teleop25.4
End8.7
blue by 3.0
177
#2
46.30.0
46.846.8
Auto8.5
Teleop28.9
End8.9
Third
1071
#16
21.50.4
20.621.0
Auto5.8
Teleop7.1
End8.6
red by 7.9
7869
#37
13.70.0
14.214.2
Auto3.6
Teleop4.4
End5.7