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Red40
365427.3
921611.5
15519.8
Blue6
1819.7
462810.8
919310.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6852020406080100120406

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3654
#12
27.32.4
23.521.0
Auto10.3
Teleop10.9
End6.2
red by 16.5
4628
#27DQ
10.85.0
14.89.8
Auto2.4
Teleop4.2
End4.2
Second
155
#30
19.82.4
21.919.4
Auto5.0
Teleop7.7
End7.1
red by 9.8
9193
#21
10.16.0
17.711.7
Auto3.8
Teleop3.7
End2.6
Third
9216
#31
11.55.6
8.714.2
Auto1.4
Teleop6.2
End3.9
red by 1.8
181
#34
9.75.0
19.414.4
Auto1.4
Teleop3.8
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
4%Sustainability oddsMissed4%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
45%Activation oddsMissed37%Activation oddsMissed