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Red100
177152.2
510937.6
297456.9
Blue155
418837.2
450951.3
634046.3
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1571366080100120180200100155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.91.1
58.357.2
Auto15.1
Teleop32.6
End7.9
red by 5.6
51.30.6
50.150.7
Auto14.2
Teleop28.9
End8.1
Second
52.21.1
53.652.4
Auto17.4
Teleop27.3
End6.7
red by 5.9
6340
#37
46.30.6
45.145.6
Auto13.3
Teleop25.3
End7.3
Third
5109
#32
37.61.1
39.037.9
Auto5.5
Teleop24.3
End7.5
red by 0.4
4188
#26
37.20.6
36.036.6
Auto10.0
Teleop20.1
End7.1