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Red166
111466.1
83651.6
300575.6
Blue184
167878.0
46161.7
347665.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions189202100150250300166184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#17
75.60.6
76.275.6
Auto18.7
Teleop46.8
End7.0
blue by 2.4
78.00.4
78.478.0
Auto18.6
Teleop43.3
End11.7
Second
66.10.6
66.766.1
Auto13.2
Teleop42.7
End8.0
red by 1.0
65.10.4
65.565.1
Auto16.2
Teleop38.7
End7.7
Third
836
#39
51.60.6
52.351.6
Auto13.5
Teleop28.6
End8.4
blue by 10.1
461
#45
61.70.4
62.161.7
Auto14.3
Teleop37.1
End7.1