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Red161
377028.2
571262.2
283248.9
Blue157
168451.9
721142.0
924539.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145137050100200250300161157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.20.5
61.261.8
Auto13.6
Teleop36.9
End10.2
red by 10.3
51.90.6
50.751.3
Auto11.7
Teleop29.2
End11.0
Second
48.90.5
47.948.5
Auto12.5
Teleop28.1
End8.5
red by 6.9
7211
#21
42.00.6
40.841.4
Auto13.8
Teleop21.2
End7.0
Third
3770
#31
28.20.5
27.227.7
Auto9.3
Teleop11.8
End7.3
blue by 11.2
9245
#19
39.40.6
38.238.8
Auto9.6
Teleop22.0
End7.7