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Red200
363662.0
433655.6
170657.4
Blue181
172768.5
49847.3
233866.3
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175188100120140160200220240260200181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.00.7
61.762.4
Auto12.5
Teleop37.9
End9.6
blue by 6.5
1727
#18
68.50.1
67.968.1
Auto16.6
Teleop42.0
End7.0
Second
1706
#21
57.40.7
57.257.9
Auto15.6
Teleop34.4
End7.1
blue by 8.8
66.30.1
65.765.8
Auto14.3
Teleop41.4
End8.8
Third
4336
#22
55.60.7
55.456.1
Auto12.3
Teleop34.2
End7.6
red by 8.3
498
#40
47.30.1
46.846.9
Auto12.3
Teleop26.9
End8.1