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Red115
459827.6
11548.9
321637.4
Blue175
212250.5
11456.4
189137.5
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11814950100200115175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
115
#7
48.90.0
49.149.1
Auto13.3
Teleop28.5
End7.0
blue by 7.5
114
#3
56.40.3
55.255.5
Auto14.4
Teleop34.4
End7.1
Second
3216
#13
37.40.0
37.637.6
Auto10.2
Teleop19.6
End7.7
blue by 13.0
50.50.3
49.249.5
Auto13.2
Teleop28.0
End8.8
Third
4598
#27
27.60.0
27.827.8
Auto7.7
Teleop13.9
End5.9
blue by 9.9
1891
#23
37.50.3
36.336.6
Auto10.8
Teleop20.2
End6.0