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Red119
250617.0
593440.8
233847.3
Blue120
202218.4
809637.5
69451.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions111110100105115120125119120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.30.4
46.847.1
Auto11.8
Teleop28.1
End7.4
blue by 4.1
694
#4
51.40.4
50.150.6
Auto15.1
Teleop26.1
End10.2
Second
40.80.4
40.440.7
Auto8.2
Teleop25.5
End7.2
red by 3.4
37.50.4
36.236.6
Auto8.9
Teleop21.5
End7.1
Third
2506
#33
17.00.4
16.516.9
Auto6.0
Teleop6.4
End4.7
blue by 1.4
2022
#29
18.40.4
17.117.5
Auto6.3
Teleop5.7
End6.3