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Red165
348834.4
409644.6
809647.0
Blue13
306141.0
657435.8
96721.7
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12910905010015020016513

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8096
#18
47.00.5
44.845.3
Auto15.6
Teleop24.2
End7.4
red by 6.0
41.02.0
43.141.0
Auto10.6
Teleop22.7
End7.5
Second
4096
#16
44.60.5
42.442.9
Auto13.4
Teleop20.0
End10.1
red by 8.8
35.82.0
37.835.8
Auto12.8
Teleop15.5
End7.7
Third
3488
#15
34.40.5
32.232.7
Auto11.3
Teleop16.9
End6.5
red by 12.7
967
#23
21.72.0
23.721.7
Auto8.4
Teleop10.1
End3.4