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Red170
745761.6
32830.9
46161.2
Blue150
649841.1
394053.7
86847.2
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165144100120180200220170150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.60.4
61.561.9
Auto13.7
Teleop39.1
End8.6
red by 7.9
3940
#14
53.70.3
53.553.8
Auto13.1
Teleop32.8
End6.6
Second
461
#10
61.20.4
61.061.4
Auto14.7
Teleop37.4
End7.5
red by 13.9
868
#15
47.20.3
47.047.3
Auto13.6
Teleop23.7
End9.4
Third
328
#20
30.90.4
30.831.2
Auto8.9
Teleop15.4
End6.8
blue by 10.2
6498
#13
41.10.3
40.941.1
Auto10.9
Teleop23.7
End6.2