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Red149
150153.7
314740.9
427251.9
Blue176
518842.1
29251.4
349451.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149148140160170149176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.70.1
52.252.3
Auto14.5
Teleop30.6
End7.6
red by 2.3
292
#9
51.40.0
50.650.7
Auto15.1
Teleop28.0
End7.4
Second
51.90.1
50.450.5
Auto16.0
Teleop28.5
End6.7
red by 0.9
3494
#11
51.00.0
50.350.3
Auto10.2
Teleop33.4
End6.9
Third
3147
#24
40.90.1
39.439.5
Auto13.3
Teleop20.3
End7.2
blue by 1.2
5188
#23
42.10.0
41.341.3
Auto11.1
Teleop21.9
End8.5