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Red139
29247.7
999922.5
349452.4
Blue117
172028.4
999722.6
155523.8
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12469050100150200139117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.40.6
49.550.0
Auto10.9
Teleop31.7
End9.7
red by 24.0
1720
#17
28.40.2
28.228.4
Auto6.8
Teleop16.1
End5.8
Second
292
#13
47.70.6
44.845.4
Auto15.2
Teleop24.8
End7.6
red by 23.9
1555
#16
23.80.2
23.723.8
Auto8.1
Teleop10.6
End5.7
Third
9999
#22
22.50.9
17.918.8
Auto5.4
Teleop9.7
End7.2
blue by 0.2
9997
#11
22.60.3
22.322.6
Auto9.4
Teleop10.1
End3.0