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Red133
561443.2
466121.9
157768.6
Blue117
165739.3
610425.5
513545.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14410850200133117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.60.2
67.967.7
Auto12.9
Teleop44.3
End8.9
red by 23.3
5135
#12
45.40.4
44.243.8
Auto11.8
Teleop23.1
End9.4
Second
5614
#13
43.20.2
41.441.2
Auto14.6
Teleop20.8
End8.0
red by 4.0
1657
#45
39.30.4
38.337.9
Auto8.2
Teleop25.3
End5.6
Third
4661
#36
21.90.2
21.321.1
Auto6.3
Teleop10.3
End5.5
blue by 3.7
6104
#43
25.50.4
23.122.7
Auto8.4
Teleop10.7
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
88%Sustainability oddsEarned45%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
89%Activation oddsEarned66%Activation oddsEarned