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Red175
513545.4
157768.6
169060.0
Blue135
157450.8
307545.2
563536.1
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions180135100150200250175135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.60.3
68.268.5
Auto12.9
Teleop44.3
End8.9
red by 17.8
50.80.1
50.951.0
Auto12.4
Teleop30.0
End8.2
Second
60.00.3
59.559.8
Auto16.4
Teleop34.2
End8.2
red by 14.8
3075
#23
45.20.1
45.345.3
Auto11.7
Teleop24.8
End8.5
Third
5135
#12
45.40.3
44.945.2
Auto11.8
Teleop23.1
End9.4
red by 9.3
5635
#28
36.10.1
36.236.2
Auto12.6
Teleop15.6
End8.0