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Red153
598757.0
599047.5
331637.8
Blue140
223044.4
565446.2
321142.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14614050100200250153140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.00.3
55.055.2
Auto12.5
Teleop36.0
End8.0
red by 10.8
46.20.2
46.046.2
Auto8.3
Teleop29.5
End8.2
Second
47.50.3
45.445.7
Auto13.9
Teleop28.7
End5.0
red by 3.1
2230
#21
44.40.2
44.244.4
Auto13.6
Teleop24.0
End6.7
Third
3316
#34
37.80.3
35.836.0
Auto10.4
Teleop18.4
End9.2
blue by 4.3
3211
#18
42.10.2
42.042.1
Auto15.1
Teleop21.1
End6.0