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Red126
563536.1
307545.2
157450.8
Blue164
598757.0
599047.5
331637.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140147100120160180200126164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.80.1
51.050.8
Auto12.4
Teleop30.0
End8.2
blue by 6.2
57.00.6
55.255.8
Auto12.5
Teleop36.0
End8.0
Second
3075
#23
45.20.1
45.345.2
Auto11.7
Teleop24.8
End8.5
blue by 2.3
47.50.6
45.746.3
Auto13.9
Teleop28.7
End5.0
Third
5635
#28
36.10.1
36.236.1
Auto12.6
Teleop15.6
End8.0
blue by 1.7
3316
#34
37.80.6
36.036.6
Auto10.4
Teleop18.4
End9.2