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Red115
307542.6
817524.2
459038.4
Blue131
157763.3
674117.6
338837.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10412250150200115131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.60.3
41.341.6
Auto9.4
Teleop25.2
End8.0
blue by 20.7
63.31.3
61.362.5
Auto13.6
Teleop40.6
End8.5
Second
4590
#14
38.40.3
34.134.4
Auto11.2
Teleop19.0
End8.0
red by 1.2
37.31.3
33.234.4
Auto9.6
Teleop18.6
End9.1
Third
8175
#22
24.20.3
24.625.0
Auto9.6
Teleop8.0
End6.7
red by 6.6
6741
#24
17.61.3
17.518.8
Auto4.1
Teleop8.5
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
16%Sustainability oddsEarned56%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
84%Activation oddsMissed66%Activation oddsEarned