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Red125
565443.3
169055.5
308319.0
Blue122
307542.6
598748.0
817524.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1261210100200300400125122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.50.0
55.555.6
Auto14.7
Teleop32.0
End8.7
red by 7.5
48.00.2
47.848.0
Auto9.3
Teleop32.8
End5.8
Second
43.30.0
43.443.4
Auto9.5
Teleop26.6
End7.3
red by 0.7
42.60.2
42.442.6
Auto9.4
Teleop25.2
End8.0
Third
3083
#27
19.00.0
19.019.1
Auto5.4
Teleop9.5
End4.0
blue by 5.3
8175
#22
24.20.2
24.124.2
Auto9.6
Teleop8.0
End6.7