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Red171
157770.2
169072.0
459035.0
Blue168
157454.4
307549.4
194239.9
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14811650100200171168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.1
71.972.0
Auto14.5
Teleop55.2
End-0.4
red by 17.6
54.40.6
53.854.4
Auto11.9
Teleop41.7
End0.6
Second
70.20.1
70.170.2
Auto8.6
Teleop57.2
End1.3
red by 20.8
3075
#20
49.40.6
48.849.4
Auto9.5
Teleop38.6
End1.2
Third
4590
#26
35.00.1
34.935.0
Auto8.2
Teleop25.4
End1.1
blue by 4.9
1942
#13
39.90.6
39.339.9
Auto6.5
Teleop33.3
End0.3