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Red194
157770.2
169072.0
673835.3
Blue159
157454.4
307549.4
194239.9
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14711550100200194159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.4
71.571.9
Auto14.5
Teleop55.2
End-0.4
red by 17.6
54.40.3
53.553.8
Auto11.9
Teleop41.7
End0.6
Second
70.20.4
69.770.1
Auto8.6
Teleop57.2
End1.3
red by 20.8
3075
#20
49.40.3
48.548.8
Auto9.5
Teleop38.6
End1.2
Third
6738
#23
35.30.4
34.835.3
Auto5.2
Teleop29.1
End1.2
blue by 4.6
1942
#13
39.90.3
39.039.3
Auto6.5
Teleop33.3
End0.3