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Red177
321138.3
173169.1
263054.1
Blue192
157454.4
307549.4
194239.9
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13411450100150200177192

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.10.4
68.769.1
Auto11.1
Teleop55.4
End0.5
red by 14.7
54.41.0
52.653.5
Auto11.9
Teleop41.7
End0.6
Second
54.10.4
53.654.1
Auto10.2
Teleop42.0
End0.8
red by 4.7
3075
#20
49.41.0
47.548.5
Auto9.5
Teleop38.6
End1.2
Third
3211
#12
38.30.4
37.938.3
Auto8.9
Teleop29.9
End0.0
blue by 1.6
1942
#13
39.91.0
38.039.0
Auto6.5
Teleop33.3
End0.3