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Red199
157770.2
169072.0
673835.3
Blue116
598757.1
209650.5
999927.0
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14710350200199116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.8
70.170.8
Auto14.5
Teleop55.2
End-0.4
red by 14.9
5987
#15
57.10.4
57.356.9
Auto10.9
Teleop43.1
End0.9
Second
70.20.8
68.369.0
Auto8.6
Teleop57.2
End1.3
red by 19.7
50.50.4
50.750.3
Auto7.7
Teleop42.6
End-0.3
Third
6738
#23
35.30.8
33.434.2
Auto5.2
Teleop29.1
End1.2
red by 8.3
9999
#16
27.00.4
27.527.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop29.9
End-2.4