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Red131
318453.0
198758.1
245717.5
Blue103
180623.6
173039.4
171039.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142103406080120160180200131103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.2
58.057.9
Auto16.2
Teleop32.1
End9.9
red by 18.4
39.80.0
39.339.3
Auto9.6
Teleop22.2
End7.9
Second
53.00.2
52.852.7
Auto11.7
Teleop33.5
End7.7
red by 13.6
39.40.0
38.938.9
Auto12.4
Teleop20.0
End7.0
Third
2457
#25
17.50.2
17.417.2
Auto4.6
Teleop6.1
End6.8
blue by 6.1
1806
#28
23.60.0
23.123.1
Auto6.6
Teleop12.8
End4.3