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Red131
439515.7
353853.6
30253.0
Blue153
721156.0
22630.7
7211B33.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131124050100150200250300350131153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.2
53.453.6
Auto11.0
Teleop32.9
End9.1
blue by 2.4
56.00.5
55.055.5
Auto13.4
Teleop32.3
End9.1
Second
302
#8
53.00.2
52.853.0
Auto12.7
Teleop30.6
End9.1
red by 19.9
33.10.5
32.132.6
Auto9.2
Teleop18.6
End6.0
Third
4395
#25
15.70.2
15.415.7
Auto5.0
Teleop6.1
End4.7
blue by 15.0
226
#22
30.70.5
29.730.1
Auto9.8
Teleop16.5
End5.0